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FROM THE DESK OF KEITH GUNN
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Why bet on anything other then a cert? Hi all Keith Gunn here. Ask yourself that question. Why bet on anything other than a cert? What do I mean by cert? I mean the only outcome I can possibily imagine happening. When I look at a horse race, I look at what I think will happen, I look at the full field, I look for outsiders with a chance, I look at the form or the runners. I look at lots of things. If I can see 2 or 3 outcomes. I simply do not bet. I only bet on races where I see one outcome. One and only one. Its the only way I feel confident investing my hard earned cash on a bet. There's nothing worse than seeing £250 go up in smoke only to realise that you could have used that cash for something you wanted or even to pay a bill with. Instead, you now still owe the bill but have just blown the cash you could have paid it with. I see it all the time, tipsters picking 3-5 bets per day, every day like clockwork. Here's a tip for you for free... If your tipster picks the same amount of bets every single day, if its more than one.... they are just guessing! No one can have full confidence in the same amount of bets every single day. They might be their best picks, but they will never be 100% on every single one of them. Chances are they are not overly confident in them at all and are just guessing. The same goes for those SPRAY & PRAY style tipsters. They pick 6 or more picks per day, sometimes as many as 10 and they celebrate with 2 wins, no matter how little the profit is that they make. 20% strike rate. I think I'd shoot myself! Lets talk strike rates This is the % that you pick winners from all your selections. 5 wins from 10 selections would be a 50% strike rate. For me this is very important. Its the % chance that any of my picks are going to win and I want it as high as possible. Forget the odds for a minute. And before you think I'm crazy, think of it this way. Whats the odds of a losing bet? Doesn't matter, does it. Told to bet £100 on a horse at 16/1 to win and it comes 2nd. How much do you win? Nothing you lose £100. How about if that horse was at 2/1. Same outcome you lose £100 on the bet. Odds only come into it for the winners and anyone who is willing to take a 20% strike rate backing huge odds horses will not stick with it for long. For me tipping is about picking winners. If I win every bet I make profit, no matter what the odds. My goal as a tipster is to pick winners. Not guess, not say it was worth a shot at those odds. Not to be in two minds and suggest going each way. (I conider that the "bookie bet"). If it comes close we'll give you 20% or 25% of the odds. No thanks. If you want to know my current strike rate of 2023, keep reading. Want another free tip? If your tipster picks the horses the night before the race, they are guessing! So much can change 2-3 hours before the race that to think that you can be 100% sure of something the night before the racing is ludacrus to me. I know why people do it. There are 2 main reasons. These are... 1) They say its for the value. To this I refer you to my point on, how much value does a loser have? 2) They are catering for the "punters" who cannot be at their computers. By simply offering these 2 reasons, sometimes one, sometimes both, they are creating a service that sounds suitable and profitable. Have you joined any of these? If so, the fact you're reading this page alone makes me think its not going too well for you. Simply put... The Smart Money is the Late Money You may have heard that before. I'm not taking credit for it, but whoever said it knew what they were talking about. Imagine a friendly bet on anything. Would you want to make a bet not knowing all the facts? Maybe you have a few asumptions but nothing is known for sure. Thats what betting too early involves. Betting without all the facts. The bookies love people who bet like this. They offer them better odds knowing full well so many people will make the wrong choice. For me winning is more important than how much I win. If I win more I am more confident investing more. It would be the same with anything when it comes to money. Got an investor who shows me they know how to trade and profit every time and one who has big wins but then doesn't hit often. I'm going with the first guy. If you're like me then I have something to offer you. So whats on offer? It may not surprise you to find out I am offering you a tipping service. It may not be like many you have tried before just for the way it operates. I don't bet every day, I advise the bets only when I have all the information, this can be in the morning for an early afternoon race or the information may not be clear until midday. One email could contain only one bet and we could have 3 selection in a day (meaning 3 emails) as I will only release the information when I am certain. Most weeks I only bet about 3-5 times per week. Before you go any further, take a look at my stats from January to March. Stats & Winners Below you can see a monthly breakdown of my results showing how many bets per month, how many won, the strike rate and also the profit against the odds avaialble at the time of me giving the advice out, the odds I took, and the SP odds. If SP odds were higher then advised, SP is used for both. I do suggest betting using Best Odds Guaranteed bookies if possible. [F] Denotes a favourite or joint favourite. As you can see I have no problem in backing favourites. I like to win, so I'll back what is going to do just that. January Bets Placed: 19 Winners List [F] Arthurs Quay (2/1 Advised - 11/8 SP) - 3rd Jan February Bets Placed: 16 Winners List [F] Certainly Red (3/1 Advised - 11/4 SP) 2nd Feb March (up to 21st March) Bets Placed: 13 Winners List Dindin (11/4 Advised & SP) 1st Mar Summary I'm sure from the above you can make your own mind up about if my service is for you or not but here are a few totals to help you analyse the data. 3 profitable months from 3. 25 total winners from 48 bets, an average strike rate of 52.08% An important stat I believe is profit per bet. Anywhere around 0.5pts per bet is good profit in my view. Over the first 3 months of 2023 I have averaged a staggering 1pt profit for every bet I have placed. This stat takes into account losers and is a good financial tool for working out how much you can make per bet as a comparison for other tipsters. So for the 2nd most important question.. How much can I win? I could say as much as you want but lets be realistic. I don't expect people to bet what I bet which is £100 on each bet, at the same time I don't expect this is much good to you if you're betting only £2 or £5 per go. So look at it this way. Say if you were putting £10 on every bet a tipster who gave you 3 tips per day over 6 days per week. Based on a 4 week month thats £30 per day, £180 per week or £720 per month. Over the first 3 months of the year I have averaged 16 bets per month. £720 per month split over 16 bets is £45 per bet, Betting £45 per bet with me would be the same as betting £10 per bet with a tipster who gave you 3 bets per day, 6 days per week where you staked a level £10 bet on each. Here's how much you would have made per month and in total to £45 or £100 bets: £45 bets would have seen: With a total of £2,157.30 profit in just 3 months £100 bets would have seen: £2,023 in Jan With a total of £4,7941 profit in just 3 months That last thing I want to mention on staking is that you should only bet within your means and for this reason I recommend a 20pt bank. We hope to never need that bank but it is there to ensure you have enough in your account so you can still bet if we have a few losers and it will mean you don't miss the winners. A 20pt betting bank would mean having £500 to bet at £25 stakes, £1,000 to bet at £50 stakes and £2,000 to bet at £100 stakes. Now for the most important question... How much does this cost? I'll keep this simple and low cost... I want you to try this out. So I want to price this so even if you do want to bet at £10 per go, its still worth your while. So I am offering a HUGELY DISCOUNTED deal. Get the next 50 bets for £49.00 This is a one time payment. I AM ONLY LOOKING FOR 100 MEMBERS
Click below to grab a place and start now!
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